Researchers detail in 'Early warning system for West Nile virus risk areas, California, USA,' new data in West Nile Virus. 'The Dynamic Continuous-Area Space-Time (DYCAST) system is a biologically based spatiotemporal model that uses public reports of dead birds to identify areas at high risk for West Nile virus (WNV) transmission to humans. In 2005, during a statewide epidemic of WNV (880 cases), the California Department of Public Health prospectively implemented DYCAST over 32,517 km2 in California,' scientists in Richmond, California report.
'Daily risk maps were made available online and used by local agencies to target public education campaigns, surveillance, and mosquito control. DYCAST had 80.8% sensitivity and 90.6% specificity for predicting human cases, and k analysis indicated moderate strength of chance-adjusted agreement for >4 weeks. High-risk grid cells (populations) were identified an average of 37.2 days before onset of human illness; relative risk for disease was >39 x higher than for low-risk cells,' wrote R.M. Carney and colleagues.
The researchers concluded: 'Although prediction rates declined in subsequent years, results indicate DYCAST was a timely and effective early warning system during the severe 2005 epidemic.'
Carney and colleagues published their study in Emerging Infectious Diseases (Early warning system for West Nile virus risk areas, California, USA. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2011;17(8):1445-54).
For more information, contact R.M. Carney, California Dept. of Public Health, Richmond, California, United States.
Keywords: City:Richmond, State:California, Country:United States, Region:North and Central America, Virology, Flavivirus, RNA Viruses, Flaviviridae, Vertebrate Viruses, Government Agencies, Japanese Encephalitis Viruses, California Department of Education, California State Education Agencies.
This article was prepared by Education Letter editors from staff and other reports. Copyright 2011, Education Letter via VerticalNews.com.
